Components of population change
Changes in national population size are driven by two factors: natural increase (births minus deaths) and net external migration.
Births exceeded deaths by 30,700 in the December 2005 year, an increase from 29,700 in 2004. Historically, natural increase has been the main component of population growth in New Zealand, but its contribution is set to decline gradually as the population ages and fertility remains stable. By 2020, natural increase is projected to be about 20,000 a year.
The number of people coming to live in New Zealand in 2005 exceeded those leaving the country to live elsewhere by 7,000, less than half the net migration gain of 2004 (15,100). In the December 2005 year, the net gain from permanent and long-term migration accounted for 18 percent of population growth, down from 34 percent in 2004.
Figure P2 Components of population change, 1982–2005
Source: Statistics New Zealand
Note: Before 1991, estimated population change was based on the de facto population concept. From 1991 onwards, population change was based on the resident population concept
Almost 70 percent of New Zealand nationals returning home in 2005 after a long-term absence came from either the United Kingdom or Australia. These two countries were also the most popular destinations for New Zealand citizens departing for a permanent or long-term absence.
The net inflow of non-New Zealand citizens more than doubled between 2000 and 2002 (from 26,600 to 54,900), then fell to 32,000 in 2005. The main contributing countries in 2005 were the United Kingdom (10,000), Fiji (2,500), India (2,000), Japan (1,700), Germany (1,400), South Africa (1,200) and China (1,200). Most new migrants settle in Auckland.
In the decade to 2005, New Zealand had a net gain of 110,700 migrants. Two age groups contributed most of this gain: adults aged 25–49 years (62 percent) and children aged under 15 years (29 percent).
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