Components of population change

Changes in national population size are driven by two factors: natural increase (births minus deaths) and net external migration.

Births registered in the December 2009 year exceeded deaths registered in that year by 33,600, below the 35,200 recorded in 2008. Historically, natural increase has been the main component of population growth in New Zealand, but its contribution is set to decline gradually as the population ages and fertility remains stable. By 2026, natural increase is projected to be about 23,600 a year.

The number of people coming to live in New Zealand in 2009 exceeded those leaving the country to live elsewhere by 21,300. This was well above the net migration gain of 3,800 in 2008 and higher than the annual average of 11,900 for the December years 1990–2009. In the December 2009 year, the net gain from permanent and long-term migration accounted for 39 percent of the population growth.

Figure P2 Components of population change, 1982–2009

Source: Statistics New Zealand
Notes: (1) Before 1991, estimated population change was based on the de facto population concept. From 1991 onwards, population change was based on the resident population concept. (2) Net migration refers to net permanent and long-term migration.

The increased gain from net migration in 2009 was mainly due to a decline in long-term departures to Australia, from a record net outflow of 35,400 in 2008 to 18,000 in 2009.

The main contributing countries to the net migration gain in 2009 were the United Kingdom (9,100), India (6,000), China (3,800), the Philippines (2,300), and Fiji (2,200). The United Kingdom has been New Zealand’s leading net source of migrants since 2004.

Over the decade to 2009, New Zealand had a net gain of 138,800 migrants. Adults aged 25–49 years contributed more than half of this gain (54 percent), with young people aged 15–19 years (25 percent) and children aged under 15 years (19 percent) accounting for most of the remainder. Among adult migrants aged 25–49 years, the sex ratio was about equal for those arriving in New Zealand over the decade, but among those leaving the country, males slightly outnumbered females.

For long-term migrants who are New Zealand citizens, there was a net outflow of 15,500 in 2009, less than half the net outflow of the previous year (37,000). Long-term departures for this group fell from 60,600 in 2008 to 41,600 in 2009. In comparison, arrivals numbered 26,100 in 2009, higher than the 23,600 recorded in 2008 and the average of 23,500 for the period 1979–2009.

Two-thirds (67 percent) of New Zealand nationals returning home in 2009 after a long-term absence came from either Australia or the United Kingdom. These two countries were also the most popular destinations for New Zealand citizens departing for a permanent or long-term absence.

There was a net inflow of 36,700 non-New Zealand citizens in 2009, down slightly from 40,900 in 2008. The net inflow of non-New Zealand citizens more than doubled between 2000 and 2002 (from 26,600 to 54,900), then fell to 32,000 in 2005 and recovered slightly to 38,200 in 2006 and 2007. The Auckland region was the destination for more than half (52 percent) of all non-New Zealand citizens who arrived in 2009 for long-term residence, followed by Canterbury (13 percent) and the Wellington region (10 percent).

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