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Components of population change

Changes in national population size are driven by two factors: natural increase (births minus deaths) and net external migration.

Births exceeded deaths by 35,500 in the December 2007 year, an increase from 30,900 in 2006. Historically, natural increase has been the main component of population growth in New Zealand, but its contribution is set to decline gradually as the population ages and fertility remains stable. By 2021, natural increase is projected to be about 25,000 a year.

The number of people coming to live in New Zealand in 2007 exceeded those leaving the country to live elsewhere by 5,500, well below the net migration gain of 14,600 in 2006. In the December 2007 year, the net gain from permanent and long-term migration accounted for 13 percent of population growth.

Figure P2 Components of population change, 1982–2007

Figure P2 Components of population change, 1982–2006

Source: Statistics New Zealand 
Note: Before 1991, estimated population change was based on the de facto population concept. From 1991 onwards, population change was based on the resident population concept

The decline in net long-term migration in 2007 was mainly due to an increase in long-term departures to Australia, from 34,000 in 2006 to 41,600 in 2007. However, net long-term migration inflows from other countries more than offset the net outflow to Australia. The main contributing countries were the United Kingdom (7,100), India (3,600), the Philippines (3,200), and Fiji (2,500). The United Kingdom has been New Zealand’s leading net source of migrants since 2004.

Two-thirds (67 percent) of New Zealand nationals returning home in 2007 after a long-term absence came from either Australia or the United Kingdom. These two countries were also the most popular destinations for New Zealand citizens departing for a permanent or long-term absence.

The net inflow of non-New Zealand citizens more than doubled between 2000 and 2002 (from 26,600 to 54,900), fell to 32,000 in 2005, then rose to 38,200 in 2006 and 2007.

In the decade to 2007, New Zealand had a net gain of 98,400 migrants. Two age groups contributed most of this gain: adults aged 25–49 years (60 percent) and children aged under 15 years (25 percent). Most new migrants settle in Auckland.